Strip Out AI and the S&P 500 Looks Very Different, Goldman Index Shows

The S&P 500 has gained 18.3% in six months, against 6.7% for Goldman Sachs’ index excluding artificial intelligence (AI) enablers. A chip-led AI rally pushed the benchmark to a record, while that index sits 6.4% below its high.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at records on Tuesday. Goldman’s ex-AI index, by contrast, peaked in August.

Where did the S&P 500 and its ex-AI version split?

The S&P 500 gained 18.3% over six months to 7,818.93 at Tuesday’s close, Google Finance data show. The ex-AI index, ticker SPXXAI, gained 6.7% to 3,123.24. The gap is 11.6 percentage points.

S&P 500 performance over 6 months. Image: Google Finance

Goldman built the index in February so clients could hedge AI exposure, Axios reported. It excludes stocks the bank deems AI enablers, about 45% of the S&P 500 at launch.

The ex-AI index performance over the last 6 months. Image: Google Finance

The ex-AI index sits 6.4% below its 52-week high of 3,337.19. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 sits 0.3% below its own.

Chip stocks supplied the latest push. AMD, Marvell, Synopsys, and Cadence Design Systems each gained 20% or more in about 20 trading days, CNBC reported.

Still, Schwab’s Kevin Gordon has noted that the average stock fell 14% peak to trough since early August.

Could power stocks become the next leg of the AI trade?

Jan van Eck, CEO of asset manager VanEck, said chips were the first stage of the AI trade. He calls power producers and nuclear energy the second stage, or the AI 2.0 trade.

That group has lagged this year over political concerns about data center growth, he said. Yet power producer Constellation Energy jumped 12.3% on Tuesday after Alphabet signed a power deal with it.

Van Eck said the deal may mark a bottom for the group. However, a prediction market he cited puts the odds of one approved nuclear plant below 10% this year.

“I think when that happens this dry spell for the AI 2.0 trade will be over.”

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, via CNBC

The split suggests the benchmark’s records now rest on AI-linked stocks. Third-quarter results from the largest cloud spenders may show whether that support holds.

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