XRP Is Set for a 16% Breakout, but Only if the Market Leader Behaves

The XRP price is trading near $1.09, and its chart is quietly turning bullish. A classic reversal pattern is taking shape just as selling volume fades and Bitcoin, the coin XRP still tracks, holds firm.

That mix hints at a possible double-digit breakout. The catch is that XRP’s fate stays tied to the market leader.

XRP Draws a Bullish Pattern as Bitcoin Holds Firm

On the daily chart, XRP is shaping a cup and handle, a rounded base followed by a small dip that often leads to a breakout. That said, the cup formed between June 22 and July 4, and the handle is taking shape now. If it completes, the pattern points to a move of roughly 16%.

The volume supports it. Selling volume has faded since July 6, a sign the pullback is losing steam rather than building.

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Here is the key link. XRP rarely trades on its own, and its XRP-Bitcoin correlation sits at 0.84 over the past 30 days, where 1.0 is perfect lockstep. So the pattern only pays off if Bitcoin cooperates.

For now, it is. Bitcoin is up about 6.7% over the past week and down just 1% in a day, holding firm through three separate shocks:

• Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, sold roughly 3,588 Bitcoin
• Bitcoin mining stocks dipped 20%
• Fresh Iran conflict impacting oil and global markets

With the market leader steady, XRP’s own holders are adding to the case.

Long-Term Holders Are Quietly Buying

On-chain data shows conviction building. Using HODL Waves, a metric that groups coins by how long they have been held, the one-to-two-year cohort grew its share of supply from 12.80% to 15.33% since July 1.

The timing stands out. That buying happened while the XRP price barely moved, holding between $1.05 and $1.11, which suggests patient accumulation rather than chasing a rally.

Exchange flows agree. Coins have mostly been leaving exchanges, a sign of accumulation. A brief two-day burst of inflows in early July marked some selling, the move that shaped the handle, but outflows have since resumed, hinting the pressure is fading. The outflow resumption also aligns with the fading selling volume, as highlighted earlier.

That leaves the XRP price chart to set the terms.

XRP Price Levels to Watch

Back to the cup and handle, now with the numbers. Support sits at $1.08. A push above $1.12 completes the handle, but the real test is $1.19, the 0.618 Fibonacci level and a technically stubborn barrier about 9% above current levels.

Clearing $1.19 would confirm the breakout and project a roughly 16% run toward $1.38 for the XRP price.

The risk is just as clear. A daily close below $1.08 breaks the pattern and opens a slide toward $1.00. And with correlation at 0.84, a sharp Bitcoin drop would pull XRP down no matter how strong its on-chain case looks.

Therefore, a daily close above $1.19 opens the path toward $1.38, while a close below $1.08 sends the XRP price back toward $1.00.

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