Will Solana’s Price Recovery Be Challenging? Here’s What On-Chain Signals Suggest

Solana has staged a sharp intraday recovery after recent losses pressured the price earlier this week. SOL bounced strongly as the broader crypto market added nearly $200 billion in value. 

Aggressive dip buying prevented deeper losses, helping Solana stabilize and post a 12% daily gain despite lingering market uncertainty.

Solana LTHs Are Not So Bullish Yet

On-chain data shows long-term holder buying momentum is slowing. The HODLer Net Position Change has declined, indicating reduced accumulation from investors who typically support prices during downturns. This shift followed SOL’s sharp pullback over the past week, which appears to have dampened long-term conviction.

A sustained recovery depends on whether long-term holders resume accumulation. If buying momentum remains weak, Solana may struggle to build durable upside. Reduced support from this cohort limits demand absorption, increasing the risk that short-term rallies fade without broader participation from long-term investors.

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Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. The Money Flow Index is approaching the oversold threshold below 20.0. A move into this zone typically signals selling saturation, often preceding periods of stabilization or short-term rebounds in price.

Historically, Solana has entered oversold territory only three times in the past two and a half years. Each instance coincided with notable price stabilization or reversal. If the indicator slips further, it may help SOL pause its decline and attract renewed dip-buying interest from traders.

SOL Price Recovery Still Likely

Solana price is trading near $88 at the time of writing after climbing 12% in the past 24 hours. Earlier in the session, SOL dropped roughly 13% to an intraday low. Strong dip buying prevented a close near $67, highlighting active demand at lower levels.

Support from the broader market could allow SOL to push above $90 in the near term. A recovery rally would require reclaiming $100 as support. Securing that level would confirm improving momentum and open the path toward a move near $110 as confidence returns.

Downside risk persists if long-term holder selling continues. Failure to reclaim $100 could cap upside and leave SOL range-bound near $90. Under weaker conditions, the price may retreat toward $78. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend Solana’s corrective phase.

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