The Best Trade of the Month Wasn’t Crypto or Oil, It Was Potatoes

The US-Iran war has shaken global markets, with safe-haven gold facing headwinds while oil stocks, crypto, and rallied. Yet one commodity has outpaced every major asset class by more than 40 times.

Potato contracts for difference (CFDs) surged roughly 705% in under a month, dwarfing every major asset class.

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Potatoes Just Outperformed Bitcoin This Month

The 705% jump came during a green month for risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) gained 13.1% over the past month. Ethereum (ETH) added 6.2%, while the broader crypto market rose 10.8%.

US equities also rallied. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 15%, the S&P 500 added 9.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.95%.

Commodity gains were mixed. According to data from Trading Economics, Brent crude rose 5.86%, gasoline jumped 16.1%, and silver added 8.37%. Gold slipped 0.25%, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.08%.

Even the strongest performers fell short of the 705% potato CFD move by more than 40 times.

Why Potato Derivatives Are Surging

It’s important to note that the pump reflects financial markets reacting to volatility in the Iran war, not any actual scarcity in physical potato inventories. Euro News reported that the price per 100 kilograms has climbed from roughly €2.11 on April 21 to €18.50 since April 21. 

“As potatoes are a nutrient-intensive crop, the sudden lack of affordable fertiliser has direct implications for future yields and current market valuations. To make matters worse, the regional instability has made primary shipping lanes increasingly hazardous, complicating the logistics of agricultural trade,” the outlet wrote.

Even at that level, potato prices remain well below where the market traded over the past two years, as European producers work through a substantial supply glut. Thus, traders are repricing futures based on risks and the broader effects of the Iran conflict.

“Traders are seemingly repricing futures contracts and no longer prioritising the current reality of oversupply. While for European consumers, this does not presently translate to a massive increase in the cost of a basic dietary staple, the move in potato CFDs highlights an anxious market attempting to price the several and encompassing economic effects of the Iran war,” the report read.

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