SpaceX Stock Faces Tesla-Style Crash Fears as $3 Trillion Valuation Sparks Debate

SpaceX stock is drawing crash warnings days after its record Nasdaq debut. Traders are comparing SPCX to Tesla’s volatile 2010 listing as the company nears a $3 trillion valuation.

The parallel has split market watchers. Some expect a steep correction once selling pressure builds, while others argue a tiny public float could keep prices elevated for months.

A record debut at a stretched valuation

SpaceX priced its shares at $135 on June 12 and raised about $75 billion, eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s $25.6 billion in 2019 to become the largest IPO in history. The debut instantly ranked it among the most valuable US companies.

SPCX has since climbed past its earlier opening level, trading roughly 56% higher near $213.95 as of this writing.

Prediction market Kalshi said SpaceX touched a $3 trillion valuation in after-hours trading on $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue.

That multiple dwarfs the levels from the stock’s earlier $2 trillion debut and exceeds anything Tesla carried at listing.

Why Some Traders See a SpaceX Stock Crash

Analyst Ted Pillows summed up the bearish case, framing SPCX as a replay of Tesla’s early path. Another widely shared post claimed Elon Musk ran the identical playbook at Tesla’s 2010 listing.

The record is messier than the meme. Tesla closed its first day 40.5% above its $17 offer price. It roughly doubled within months, then shed almost a quarter of its value in weeks.

The stock ended 2011 up just 7.3%, with no single 70% collapse before its later 300-fold climb.

“SpaceX $SPCX is following the Tesla $TSLA route. An initial pump of 60%-70% followed by a brutal 50% crash,” Ted Pillows wrote.

Investor Jo Bhakdi expects downward pressure from August, citing the thin float, forced index buying, and a valuation near 90 times 2026 revenue.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer echoed the unease, saying he likes the company but dislikes watching a meme-style climb with almost no sellers.

The Case for a Longer Squeeze

Conversely, others warn that betting on a crash misreads the supply. Investment adviser Thierry Borgeat argued that the same scarcity driving overvaluation also shields the price.

“Yes, the stock is expensive on every traditional measure… But price doesn’t fall just because it should. It falls when sellers outnumber buyers… Scarcity cuts both ways,” CFA Borgeat noted.

Demand has been intense. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted the number of ETFs holding SPCX jumped from four to about 120 in days.

With insiders locked up and retail reluctant to sell, buyers still outnumber sellers, much as they did while Tesla’s lofty valuation drew skeptics years ago.

The first real test arrives in August, when early lock-up expirations could finally add supply.

Until then, SpaceX stock looks set to trade on scarcity and sentiment rather than fundamentals, even as Musk’s soaring net worth keeps the spotlight bright.

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