SpaceX IPO Turns Tesla Merger Talk Into a Core Wall Street Thesis

Wolfe Research says a SpaceX and Tesla merger has moved into the Wall Street mainstream. Some investors now treat a future combination as their primary reason for owning TSLA stock.

Analyst Emmanuel Rosner detailed the thesis in a June 9 client note. The call lands two days before Elon Musk’s rocket firm prices the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

Why the SpaceX Tesla Merger Thesis Is Gaining Ground

SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares at a fixed $135 apiece, according to StreetInsider. The deal would raise a record $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

Nasdaq trading starts June 12 under the ticker SPCX.

The offering is all-primary, and Musk must hold his shares for 366 days after the debut. Demand already outstrips supply.

The offering is well oversubscribed, with some institutions bidding for $10 billion or more. Banks will close order books Wednesday, with reported demand near $150 billion.

Rosner identifies three forces behind the merger thesis:

• A public SpaceX hands Musk liquid stock currency.

• A hypothetical all-stock deal would push Musk’s voting control well above 50%.

• A combined company would pair Tesla’s driving data with SpaceX’s compute buildout and a larger capital base.

SpaceX already absorbed Musk’s AI startup xAI earlier this year, a deal valuing the rocket maker at $1 trillion.

“The potential for an eventual SpaceX / Tesla merger has increasingly moved into the mainstream, with some now making it their primary thesis for owning the TSLA stock,” Rosner wrote in the firm’s latest note, citing discussions with institutional investors.

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Bitcoin Sits Inside the Record Listing

The IPO carries direct crypto weight too. SpaceX’s S-1 filing disclosed 18,712 Bitcoin (BTC) bought for roughly $661 million in 2021, near $35,324 per coin.

The filing valued the position at $1.29 billion as of March 31. That tops the roughly 11,509 BTC held by Tesla in the corporate bitcoin treasury rankings.

Crypto traders are pricing the debut early. Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken list SPCX pre-IPO perpetual futures, as crypto markets price SpaceX before its shares list.

ProShares plans to launch a 2x daily leveraged SpaceX ETF on listing day itself.

Hurdles Push Any Deal Beyond Mid-2027

Wolfe flags serious obstacles, however.

• Tesla would likely pay a large premium, and other SpaceX shareholders could object.

Tesla’s China operations add regulatory complications. The firm sees completion as unlikely before mid-2027 at the earliest.

• Valuation adds another caution.

SpaceX booked $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 but posted a $4.94 billion net loss.

Morningstar pegged fair value at $780 billion, and some analysts argue the float is worth half the valuation.

Near term, Rosner argues merger anticipation may give Tesla shares downside support.

However, he stresses that robotaxi and Optimus delivery still decides whether the stock finds momentum.

The offering prices on June 11. Early SPCX trading may show whether investors assign a real merger premium or treat the idea as narrative fuel.

Either answer will shape expectations for what comes after SpaceX goes public.

Read Also:

• Fidelity Cuts SpaceX IPO Eligibility by 99%, But 5 Rules Could Cost You Access
• 6 Questions Investors Must Ask as Elon Musk Locks 100% SpaceX Shares Before IPO
• 3 Massive Things That Could Happen After SpaceX Goes Public in June 2026
• 5 Ways Crypto Markets Are Pricing SpaceX Before Wall Street Can
• 10 Surprising Facts About Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion SpaceX IPO

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