Solana Bulls Reclaim Control After Weeks of Selling, Eye 14% Breakout

Solana (SOL) price trades near $90 with the daily chart printing a familiar bottoming structure as buyers flip exchange flow back to net outflows for five straight sessions.

The setup links an 11% rebound, a developing reversal pattern, and a fresh shift in spot demand. Whether SOL converts that into a 14% breakout depends on a heavy supply cluster sitting just above price.

Price Builds Reversal Structure on 11% Rebound

The daily chart shows Solana carving an inverse head-and-shoulders since late March. The right shoulder formed in late April. SOL has rallied roughly 11% off that floor, working back up toward the neckline that defines the breakout trigger.

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The moving average stack adds context. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend indicator that gives weight to recent price moves, is closing in on the 50-day for a potential bullish crossover.

Both shorter EMAs sit below the 100-day EMA, which still caps the rally from above. A confirmed bullish cross marks the first momentum signal. Also, the possible price reclaim of the 100-day EMA at around 93.91 makes the second momentum cue.

Pattern follow-through, however, still depends on flow data backing the bid.

Buyers Pull SOL Off Exchanges as a Supply Cluster Comes Into View

Glassnode data shows the exchange net position change has flipped to buying. The metric tracks SOL flowing in and out of exchanges. April 22 through May 1 ran heavy on inflows, with single-day readings reaching almost 1.4 million SOL pushed onto exchanges.

That trend reversed. For five straight sessions through May 6, SOL has been pulled OFF exchanges. The latest day printed 543,961 SOL in net outflows. The shift suggests buyers may be absorbing supply faster than sellers can place it.

A second on-chain layer reinforces the read. Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap maps the price ranges where holders acquired their coins. The metric shows roughly 5.41 million SOL is concentrated in a tight band sitting just above current price.

That cluster historically acts as resistance. Holders at break-even tend to sell into strength, especially when their entry was a recent bottom.

If these holders do not sell into the strength and keep holding the stash, the 14% breakout thesis might start making sense. For now, pattern, flow, and supply distribution all line up. The price ladder now reveals where each pivot sits on the chart.

Solana Price Levels That Decide the 14% Breakout

With the pattern, flow flip, and supply cluster aligned, the focus shifts to the price ladder. Technical levels drawn from the right-shoulder low at $81.29 show that SOL is now fighting the 0.618 level at $90.03.

A clean reclaim opens $92.41 (0.786 Fibonacci). That level overlaps with the 5.41 million SOL cost basis cluster between $91.70 and $92.43. The cluster acts as the first major supply wall.

Above that sits the 100-day EMA at $93.91, the next moving average hurdle. The neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders runs at $96.95. A clean break activates the pattern. The measured move projects 14.45% upside, taking SOL toward $111.00.

The downside ladder is just as defined. Failure to hold above $90.03 exposes $86.69 (0.382) and $84.63 (0.236). A loss of $81.29, the right-shoulder floor, weakens the entire Solana price pattern.

The flow flip and pattern setup lean toward the upside read. The 5.41 million SOL supply cluster has yet to be tested, however, and the 100-day EMA still sits above the rally. A close above $96.95 separates a 14% Solana price breakout toward $111.00 from a slide to the $81.29 invalidation floor.

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