Polish Crypto Analyst Apologizes After Bitcoin ‘Santa Rally’ Forecast Fails

A well-known Polish market analyst has publicly apologized after his latest Bitcoin outlook collapsed within weeks, sparking debate across social media.

Robert Ruszała, known online as El Profesor, admitted his plan was wrong and published a detailed breakdown explaining the mistakes behind his failed scenario.

Analyst Breaks Industry Norm by Owning His Error

Crypto commentators often highlight their wins and stay silent when predictions miss. Ruszała took the opposite approach.

He originally released a forecast called “The Plan,” outlining a bullish path for Bitcoin based on market fractals, the 50-week EMA, and a seasonal move often described as the “Santa Rally.”

According to his model, Bitcoin was expected to hold its uptrend and provide opportunities to take long positions at specific technical levels.

Market Reversal Forces a Reassessment

However, it took the market only three weeks to dismiss that vision. Bitcoin dropped below key zones and invalidated the entire bullish structure.

On 21 November, Ruszała addressed the failed call directly, writing:
“I failed… I’m sorry to everyone who followed this plan. I know where I made the mistake.”

He later explained that he always prepares two scenarios — bullish and bearish. The first one worked from roughly $116,000 down to $94,700. The deeper decline activated his bearish outlook.

He stressed that reacting to market changes matters more than sticking to a single direction.

What Went Wrong in “The Plan”

Ruszała then published a technical breakdown of the error. He pointed to several indicators that he ranked incorrectly in terms of probability.

That mis-ordering, he said, led him to misjudge Bitcoin’s potential movement.

The post did not spark major controversy, but it prompted discussion among traders. Several users praised him for his transparency, noting that few analysts publicly dissect their own mistakes.

His response highlights a broader reality in crypto markets: even well-constructed scenarios require constant revision, and the market can still surprise the most seasoned experts.

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