Nokia Crushed Earnings — and Dropped to Its Lowest Close Since April

Nokia stock closed at $9.73 on Thursday, down 5.35%, its lowest close since April 2026. The decline erased the 0.618 Fibonacci golden pocket at $10.41 and extended a slide that began in early June.

The selloff followed a second-quarter report that beat estimates but paired accelerating AI demand with warnings on memory shortages. NOK now trades roughly 44% below its June peak of $17.45.

Why Nokia Stock Is Falling Despite a Q2 Earnings Beat

Nokia’s second-quarter results looked strong on paper. Comparable operating profit rose 18% year-over-year to €434 million, above the €382 million analyst consensus. Net sales reached €4.82 billion, up 9%.

Sales to AI and cloud customers doubled to €446 million, while new orders from the segment hit a record €2.8 billion. Nokia targeted this market after a strong Q1, when hyperscaler spending first lifted its optical business.

However, investors sold the outlook rather than the quarter. CEO Justin Hotard warned that memory shortages may persist into 2027, as AI companies absorb the industry’s DRAM supply and push component prices higher.

“That’s probably the one that we see as most significant,” Hotard said this about memory constraints during the earnings call.

Meanwhile, legacy weakness persists. Fixed Networks revenue fell 13% as telecom operators delayed spending, and Nokia guided for third-quarter operating profit to be broadly flat versus Q2.

The sector backdrop made things worse. Ericsson fell nearly 12% on July 14 after flagging the same memory cost inflation, dragging telecom equipment peers lower. Cracks in memory stocks and broader AI profit-taking added pressure on a stock that was still up about 85% for the year as recently as mid-July.

NOK Price Analysis Shows the Golden Pocket Flipping to Resistance

On the daily chart, Nokia stock has been falling since June 3. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the January low of $6.06 to the June top of $17.45 now maps the decline.

NOK first lost the 0.382 level at $13.10 in early July. More importantly, this week it broke below the golden pocket, the 0.618 retracement at $10.41. That zone acted as support in April, and its loss suggests it may now work as resistance.

The volume spike during the latest drop is significant. It indicates conviction behind the selling, which favors a continuation of the downtrend.

The next target sits at the 0.786 retracement at $8.50, around 12.6% below Thursday’s close. This level also aligns with the consolidation area from March and April, which could strengthen it as a demand territory. In contrast, a daily close back above $10.41 would invalidate the bearish outlook.

Nokia RSI Confirms the Breakdown as Momentum Turns Bearish

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) tells a similar story. Nokia’s RSI had respected an ascending support line from November 2025, testing it successfully three times, in February and twice in June.

The indicator lost that line in late June. Furthermore, the July bounce was rejected precisely at its underside, confirming the old support as new resistance. Price and RSI have both declined sharply since the rejection.

The RSI now reads near 32, just above the oversold threshold at 30. A dip below 30 could produce a short-term bounce, similar to other oversold names in the recent chip rout. However, the momentum structure remains bearish while the broken trendline caps recoveries.

For now, the path of least resistance points toward $8.50. Relief in memory costs or strong second-half delivery could revive the AI growth story, but a breakdown below $8.50 would expose the $6.06 anchor low.

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