McDonald’s Stock Hits 2-Year Low as Bear Market Turns Official

McDonald’s (MCD) stock fell to $264.09 on July 15, its lowest level in two years. The drop extends the decline to 22.45% from the March record high of $341.75, placing the stock in an official bear market.

A wave of analyst downgrades hit the fast-food giant this week. Meanwhile, the weekly chart shows the price testing its final Fibonacci support, with momentum near multi-year lows.

Why Is McDonald’s Stock Going Down?

The latest leg down came after Redburn Atlantic cut its rating two notches, from buy to sell. The firm warned that GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could cost McDonald’s up to 28 million customer visits. That equals roughly $482 million in lost revenue per year.

Price target cuts followed quickly. Citigroup lowered its objective from $375 to $335, while Morgan Stanley trimmed its target from $331 to $322. Wall Street has grown cautious on other large caps, too, as a recent sell call on Tesla showed.

The downgrades landed on an already weakened business. Lower-income diners keep cutting visits, and franchisees say the $5 value meal leaves them almost no profit. Gross margins have slipped from 58% in late 2025 to 56% in early 2026.

MCD Tests the Last Fibonacci Support at $264

The weekly chart confirms the extent of the technical damage the five-month slide has caused. The price first lost the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $292.64, which had acted as a broad support zone since 2024. It then broke the 0.618 level at $281.05 in early July.

MCD now trades at $264.95, sitting directly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $264.55. This level overlaps a demand zone formed at the August 2024 lows near $262. Similar breakdowns pushed SpaceX stock near record lows this week.

This confluence makes $264 the last major support before a full retrace of the 2024 rally. A weekly close below it would expose the July 2024 low at $243.53.

Weekly RSI Falls to Its Lowest Since October 2023

Momentum paints an equally stretched picture. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 31 in early May 2026, undercutting the June 2024 low of 33.61. That reading was the lowest since October 2023, when the indicator bottomed at 26.68.

However, this weakness may carry a contrarian signal. Both prior extremes marked major long-term bottoms for the stock. A similar weekly RSI setup recently preceded a bounce attempt in XRP.

The indicator currently hovers near 33.6, retesting the June 2024 level from below. Reclaiming this threshold would suggest sellers are losing strength, even if the price has not yet turned.

MCD Price Prediction Hinges on $264 Holding

Two scenarios now define the outlook. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the August 2024 demand zone hold, the oversold RSI could fuel a relief rally. The first target would be the broken 0.618 level at $281.05, roughly 6% above the current price.

In contrast, a weekly close below $264 would signal a deeper breakdown. The next support waits at $243.53, about 8% lower, completing a full retrace of the 2024 advance.

The next major catalyst arrives with Q2 earnings in early August. Until then, McDonald’s stock trades one weekly candle away from either a textbook oversold bounce or a fresh multi-year low.

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