Is SpaceX Stock a Buy Ahead of a $104 Billion Unlock? Elon Musk Answers

Elon Musk agrees that SpaceX stock is a buying opportunity. He said it in three words on X (Twitter), on the same day the stock hit an all time low.

Two dates now decide who is right. Earnings land Tuesday. Then on Thursday, up to 911 million more shares can hit the market.

Musk Said Three Words. The Stock Hit a Record Low.

An investor posted that this dip would look like an obvious entry later, suggesting the SPCX stock could be coiling up for a big move upwards. Elon Musk responded, backing the prospect of further upside.

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Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) fell to $104.83 on Monday. That is the lowest price it has ever touched.

Then it turned around hard. SPCX closed at $114.53, up almost 6% from Friday. Musk posted hours before that late surge.

The bounce does not fix much. The stock is still 15% below its $135 IPO price. It is about half its record high of $225.64.

July was ugly too. The stock slid all month, even after new launch deals and a mostly successful Starship test.

Almost Nobody Can Sell SpaceX Stock Yet

Here is the part most people miss.

SpaceX has about 13.2 billion shares. Fewer than 639 million can be bought or sold. That is under 5%.

The rest is frozen. Employees and early backers own it. They agreed not to sell for a while after the IPO.

That freeze starts to melt on Thursday. Up to 911.5 million shares become free to sell on August 6.

At Monday’s close, that block is worth about $104 billion. It is bigger than everything trading today, by roughly 1.4 times.

It could have been worse. A second batch of 455.8 million shares only unlocks if the stock tops $175.50. It never came close.

More waves come later in the year. Musk is not in the early group. His own shares stay locked until June 2027, and he holds about 82% of the votes.

Traders saw this coming. Bets against the stock jumped to 165 million shares, up from 111.3 million two weeks earlier. That is a quarter of everything tradable.

Facebook Did This Before, and It Surprised Everyone

Facebook sold shares at $38 in 2012. It first closed below $20 on the exact day its first insiders were freed to sell.

Then came the biggest unlock. On November 14, 2012, some 773 million shares came free.

The stock went up 12.6% that day.

Why? Holders refused to sell at those prices, and short sellers had to buy shares back. Facebook’s 2012 IPO crash hurt, but it took under 15 months to get back to $38.

Analysts have not given up on SpaceX either. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas told clients to buy in July and put a $300 tag on it. The stock had just closed near $160.

Most analysts still see it worth above $220. That is roughly double today’s price.

Others say wait. Jim Cramer told viewers to hold off going big until the unlock passes. Cathie Wood made a bolder call, saying SpaceX could become the most important company in history.

Tuesday brings real numbers at last. Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers in March. Investors want to know what that actually earns.

Right now they pay nearly $39 for every $1 of sales SpaceX should make this year. That takes a lot of faith.

Musk has told us what he thinks. On Thursday, his own staff start voting with their shares.

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