CryptoQuant’s MicroStrategy Warning Comes Two Weeks Late

CryptoQuant has urged MicroStrategy to stop buying Bitcoin (BTC) and rebuild its cash reserve. The research firm published that call on June 23, roughly two weeks after the Michael Saylor-led Bitcoin treasury had already started doing it.

By then, the company had spent two straight weeks steering most of its fresh capital into cash, not Bitcoin. That timing blunts the force of the recommendation.

Inside CryptoQuant’s MicroStrategy Warning

In its June 23 report, CryptoQuant said MicroStrategy’s annualized dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion in 2026.

Its US dollar reserve, the buffer for those payments, has fallen 38% over the same period.

STRC, the variable-rate preferred stock Strategy markets as a stable instrument near $100, instead slid to $82.50 last week. That marked a record low, about 17.5% below par.

That gap cut dividend coverage from more than seven years to roughly 14 months, by CryptoQuant’s math. The reserve sat near $2 billion before May, when MicroStrategy spent about $1.5 billion buying back convertible notes due 2029.

Selling Bitcoin to refill the reserve would backfire, the firm argued. MicroStrategy sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, since Bitcoin now trades well below its average cost near $75,000.

“The company’s strategic priority should be to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its cash reserve,” stated Julio Moreno a CryptoQuant analyst.

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MicroStrategy Had Already Pivoted

Strategy’s weekly purchase updates show the shift began before the warning. In the week of June 22, it bought just 520 Bitcoin for about $35 million.

That same week, Strategy raised $335.5 million selling common stock. It routed $300 million into the reserve, lifting it to $1.4 billion.

A week earlier, it bought 1,587 BTC but still funneled most proceeds to cash. Across both weeks, Strategy was selling more stock than it spent on Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy casts the cash build as protecting the credit quality of its preferred shares. The move marks a shift from its long-standing buy-only pledge.

The Real Debate Now

Bitcoin’s spot price hovered near $62,534, down about 2.5% on the day, keeping the treasury underwater.

CryptoQuant says the reserve must reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, before STRC can recover. At $1.4 billion, Strategy is only halfway there.

Strategy is not required to sell Bitcoin to defend STRC. It can raise the 11.5% dividend or issue more MSTR stock instead, levers it has already pulled.

So the question is no longer whether to rebuild the reserve. It is whether MicroStrategy can do it fast enough to steady STRC.

The next purchase update will show whether it keeps cash ahead of Bitcoin.

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