Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 This Weekend as the Strait of Hormuz Opens?

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $78,000 on Friday, reaching its highest level in over two months as a confirmed double-bottom breakout fueled momentum toward the $80,000 zone.

The rally followed Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ceasefire terms, which triggered a broad risk-on move across equities and crypto. Yet analysts remain sharply divided on whether BTC can sustain the push through heavy overhead resistance.

Weekly Close Holds the Key to $80,000

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $77,922, just shy of the $80,000 psychological level last tested on January 31, 2026.

The surge comes after reports that Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz completely, amid ongoing ceasefire terms.

Against this backdrop, eyes remain peeled on whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level this weekend, potentially drawing tailwinds from resounding risk-on sentiment.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has maintained itself above the double-bottom formation top near $73,000, positioning price for a positive weekly close.

However, he cautioned that a similar setup in March ended with an upside wick and a subsequent rejection.

“Bitcoin’s progression on the Daily timeframe has been promising, enabling price to maintain itself above the Double Bottom formation top of ~$73,000… it is the upcoming Weekly Close that will be most important to watch for,” wrote Rekt Capital.

On the daily chart, BTC has flipped former resistance levels near $73,000 into support, with consecutive daily closes above prior breakdown zones.

If this behavior continues, it could confirm the breakout from a multi-week consolidation range.

Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi now prices a roughly 40% chance that BTC hits $80,000 this month, but several key levels remain in focus for Q2.

Trader Ted Pillows identified $76,000 as the key reclaim level that could propel price into the $78,000 to $80,000 band.

“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone. This is where I’ll go short on Bitcoin,” wrote Ted.

Indeed, Bitcoin’s foray past $76,000 provided an entry for long positions, with a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday catching many naysayers off guard. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in short positions were liquidated in the last hour.

Bear Market Warnings Temper Optimism

Despite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also flagged significant macro headwinds. He argued that for BTC to build sustained bullish momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break its multi-month series of lower highs.

History suggests neither milestone will happen, with roughly six months of bear market potentially remaining.

The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear markets, sits directly in the current price path. The broader oil shock from the Hormuz crisis adds another layer of macro uncertainty.

BTC is also clustering beneath a macro triangle it broke down from months ago, a pattern that in 2014 resolved through distribution to the downside.

QCP Group echoed the caution, noting that derivatives desks still favor downside protection. The rally appears spot-driven and fragile rather than a structural trend change.

Ted Pillows separately disclosed plans to short BTC near the $79,000 to $80,000 zone, citing a pattern from the last two local tops where price took out the capitulation candle’s highs before reversing.

On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation but Needs Confirmation

Meanwhile, multiple on-chain indicators have flashed mixed signals throughout April. CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu pointed to the Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which has dropped into the 0.2 to 0.3 range.

This zone has historically marked deep undervaluation.

“We are entering a ‘Value-Accumulation Zone.’ The data suggests the downside is becoming limited compared to the long-term upside. However, wait for price stabilisation to confirm the index’s bottom signal,” wrote Cryptoquant analyst Woominkyu.

Supporting the case for a healthier rally, separate CryptoQuant data showed that Binance open interest has plunged even as the price climbs.

A rally built on spot demand rather than leverage significantly reduces the risk of sudden liquidation cascades.

Meanwhile, exchange inflows on Binance have fallen to 2020 levels, suggesting holders prefer to sit tight rather than sell into strength.

Still, a separate data point flagged roughly 11,000 BTC per hour moving to exchanges this week, the highest rate since December 2025.

Large holders may be positioning to distribute if the rally extends further.

Earlier forecasts for April projected BTC reaching the mid-$70,000s by month’s end. Friday’s daily close will likely determine whether BTC’s breakout above $77,000 translates into a genuine push toward $80,000 or becomes another failed attempt in a broader bear market structure.

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