Bitcoin Under $50,000? These Two Feared August Events Could Trigger It

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stalling near $64,000 after two failed pushes at the same ceiling, and both large wallets and long-term holders have started selling into the weakness.

The rollover lands just as two US events with a track record of moving crypto return to the calendar, and history says both tend to hit Bitcoin when it is already soft.

Bitcoin Enters a Weak Month With a Double Top in Play

August has been unkind to Bitcoin. It has closed the month lower in six of the last eight years, so buyers begin from a weak seasonal base.

The chart makes that base look shakier. Bitcoin has formed a double top, a bearish reversal pattern where price fails twice at the same resistance and struggles higher. The two peaks built on comparable volume, which adds weight to the signal.

Sell-side volume has also risen since August 1, pushing the current Bitcoin price toward the lower edge of the range rather than back toward the highs.

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Large holders are pulling back at the same time. Supply held by Bitcoin whales in the 10,000 to 100,000 BTC band peaked on August 3 near 2.26 million BTC, then eased to 2.25 million. The move is small, but it suggests the biggest wallets are trimming rather than adding.

Whale behavior alone does not confirm a trend, so the next question is whether long-term holders agree.

Long-Term Holders Flip From Buyers to Sellers

They appear to. The Hodler Net Position Change, a metric that tracks the net change in supply held by long-term holders, stayed positive through July as those holders added coins. It turned negative in early August.

The shift is sharp. Net selling deepened from about 1,802 BTC on August 2 to roughly 11,472 BTC on August 4, a more than six-fold jump in two days. That points to long-term holders possibly selling into strength rather than holding through it.

With whales and long-term holders leaning the same way, the market now meets two events that have moved Bitcoin hard before.

The Two Events That Have Moved Bitcoin Before

The first is Friday’s US jobs report. It is the same release that helped trigger Bitcoin’s sharp early-August drop in 2024, when a weak print sparked recession fear. Economists expect another soft reading this week, near 80,000 new jobs with unemployment around 4.2%.

Since 2023, Bitcoin has tended to fall on weak labor data.

The second is the Jackson Hole symposium in the final week of August. A hawkish speech there in 2022 helped send Bitcoin below $20,000. For years, a dovish Fed later softened those blows, but that cushion is gone. Kevin Warsh took over as Fed chair in May and has run a hawkish, inflation-first line, with markets now pricing higher-for-longer rather than cuts.

Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech as chair this month, and a market still hoping for relief is exposed to disappointment. That sets up the price chart as the decider.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Before Friday’s Jobs Report

The first line buyers need to defend sits at $61,080. A clean loss of that level would expose $59,500, the last support before the pattern’s neckline.

The neckline runs through the $57,750 to $57,470 zone. A daily close below it would confirm the double top and open a measured move of roughly 14%, which points toward the sub-$50,000 region near $49,700. The 14% drop potential is in line with August 2022’s drop size.

The setup is not confirmed yet. A double top only completes on a neckline break, so a hold above $61,080 keeps the range alive. A reclaim of the $66,930 to $67,230 ceiling that capped both peaks would invalidate the bearish Bitcoin price outlook entirely.

For now, the structure and on-chain flows lean the same way into a hostile macro week. The $57,750 neckline separates a routine August pullback from a 14% slide toward $50,000.

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