Bitcoin Loses Whale Support? Yet History Shows the Price Can Still Rise

Bitcoin price is trading near $89,700, almost flat on the day and down roughly 2% over the past week. On the surface, price action looks weak. Under the hood, something more interesting is happening.

Large Bitcoin holders are quietly stepping back. Whale support is fading, with on-chain data showing sustained distribution over the past few weeks. Yet despite this, Bitcoin has failed to break down. That resilience matters because a separate on-chain signal now suggests selling pressure may be running out, despite the whale indifference.

Whales Are Selling, but Overall Pressure May Be Nearing Exhaustion

Bitcoin’s whale address data shows clear weakness. The 30-day change in whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC has dropped to −72, its lowest level since late November. The total whale count is also sitting near monthly lows. This confirms that large holders have been reducing exposure rather than accumulating.

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Do note that these whales are mostly rotating into ETH, which shows more optimism for the second-largest crypto.

Normally, that kind of behavior leads to deeper pullbacks. This time, it hasn’t.

One reason may be the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant, a Glassnode metric that combines loss-taking behavior with price volatility. It highlights periods where many sellers are underwater, but volatility stays low. Historically, this combination appears near low-risk local BTC price bottoms.

The metric currently sits near 0.019, a level last seen around April 5, when Bitcoin traded near $83,500. Over the following six weeks, the price rallied more than 33%, peaking near $111,600. Today’s reading is slightly lower, placing it firmly within the same historical exhaustion zone.

This does not guarantee a rally. It does suggest that downside risk is shrinking.

Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide the Next Move

Despite whale selling, Bitcoin continues to hold above $89,250, a key support zone. As long as this level holds on daily closes, bears struggle to gain control.

If Bitcoin reclaims $91,320, momentum improves quickly. That opens the door to $94,660, where the prior supply sits. A clean break there would shift market structure back in favor of bulls.

The invalidation is clear. A daily close below $89,250 weakens the exhaustion thesis and exposes downside toward $87,570 and $85,900.

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