Bitcoin and Oil Respond to Trump’s US Hormuz Control Plan, But Dubai Mulls a Bypass

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped toward $62,600 on Monday while oil jumped about 4%, after the United States and Iran traded strikes over the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the waterway.

Oil climbed on supply fears while Bitcoin sold off as a risk asset. US crude reached $75.24 and Brent topped $79. Traders feared a longer disruption to a critical oil chokepoint.

Bitcoin Slips as Oil Climbs on Hormuz Plan

Bitcoin fell from a session high above $64,000 to around $62,565 on Monday. Oil ran the other way, rising about 4% as the US and Iran exchanged missile and drone attacks. Traders watched Bitcoin’s latest price swings against the oil bid all day.

The strait is why a threat there moves markets. About 20 million barrels of oil cross it daily, roughly a fifth of global consumption, the EIA says. That is close to a quarter of all seaborne oil.

Shipping is already thinning. Just six vessels crossed the strait in one recent 12-hour window. That is down from 18 to 22 a day earlier this month, tracking data showed.

Bitcoin has traded like a risk asset throughout. It slid again after Trump ended a fragile truce with Iran last week, the same move that lifted oil.

Trump Wants 20% on Cargo Through Hormuz

On Truth Social, Trump said the US would guard the strait and be repaid for the cost. He proposed a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through it. He later said Washington would probably run it.

“The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran… The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”… reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped…” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

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Iran rejected any US role. Its top military command said it would resist any attempt to route traffic without Tehran’s coordination. Iran calls the waterway closed, while Western navies insist it stays open.

The fee would break with how the US has long patrolled the strait for free. It also inverts a June truce that had barred Iran from charging ships.

Higher transit costs could feed inflation. That backdrop kept Bitcoin near $60,000 for weeks, while calmer Iran signals had recently pulled bond yields lower.

Dubai Builds for a Future Beyond Hormuz

The bigger story sits east of the strait. Dubai’s DP World is in talks to build a container port at Fujairah, a report said. It would sit on the Gulf of Oman, outside the chokepoint.

That marks a shift for Dubai. Its flagship Jebel Ali is the region’s largest port. Yet it sits inside the Gulf and depends on Hormuz for access.

The UAE now wants to cut its reliance on the strait to zero. It is expanding east coast ports at Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Dibba, all on the Gulf of Oman.

“We’re moving towards having zero Hormuz dependency and that’s regardless of whether it’s open or not,” said Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE minister of foreign trade.

The buildout is underway. Gulftainer is spending $2 billion to expand Khor Fakkan to 10 million containers a year, nearly triple its current size. That terminal alone could handle most UAE cargo if Hormuz shut.

The energy side is moving too. The UAE has piped crude around Hormuz since 2012. A second line will roughly double that bypass capacity by 2027.

The moves suggest businesses expect Hormuz to stay a flashpoint, whoever secures it. A Fujairah route would also sidestep any US transit fee, not just Iranian threats. Over time, that could chip away at the strait’s leverage over global trade.

For crypto, the signal is simple. As long as Hormuz can move oil, it can move Bitcoin. Risk assets stayed jumpy on Monday, and traders now watch the strait as closely as any chart.

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