Cardano’s 18% Breakdown Setup Is Clear — But So Is Its Only Escape Route

The Cardano price has spent most of the month stuck in a tight range. It is up about 0.5% in the last 24 hours, down roughly 1.6% on the week, and still trying to resist a much larger move lower.

The chart has produced a classic bearish pattern, but on-chain behavior and capital flows are not yet fully supporting the breakdown. That tension is what defines the ADA price right now.

A Head And Shoulders Pattern Sets Up The Threat

On the daily chart, Cardano is approaching a head-and-shoulders pattern confirmation. The neckline connecting the swing lows is sloping downward, which means buyers are only willing to defend the price at lower levels each time.

The downward-sloping neckline typically strengthens the bearish case because it indicates weakening demand even before a confirmed breakdown. A decisive close below this downward-sloping neckline would confirm the pattern and trigger a measured move of approximately 18%, targeting the $0.24 area. That is the breakdown risk on the table.

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For now, ADA has refused to fully follow through. Price has traded sideways instead, which keeps the door open for attempts to neutralize the pattern.

One Metric Drops Nearly 60%, Hinting at Cooling Sell Pressure

A key on-chain metric is also leaning against the breakdown. The spent coins age band, which measures token movement and potential selling activity, has fallen sharply. It declined from approximately 241.71 million ADA on December 11 to approximately 105.51 million ADA now. That is close to a 60% reduction in supply being moved.

Lower spent coins usually signal fewer holders rushing to sell. Earlier drops in this metric lined up with short-term rebounds. For example, on November 29, after spent coins hit a low, ADA bounced about 2.6%. The more notable example came after December 5, when activity hit another low, and the price rallied from $0.41 to $0.47 by December 9, roughly a 15% lift.

The current drop does not guarantee the same reaction. But it shows the kind of environment that has supported rebounds in the past.

Big Money And Cardano Price Levels Decide The Next Leg

The last major piece comes from the chart again. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures capital inflows, has been trending down even as the Cardano price trended higher between December 18 and December 23. That is a bearish divergence because capital flow is weakening during recovery attempts.

However, CMF is now pressing against the upper boundary of its descending trend line. A breakout in CMF, paired with price holding above $0.35, could weaken the entire head-and-shoulders setup (the breakdown escape route). If ADA pushes into $0.38, that would mark a 6.5% move and show that buyers are forcing the issue. However, for that to happen, a simple CMF breakout might not be enough.

The metric may need to exceed the zero line, indicating cumulative inflows.

Above that, $0.48 is where the breakdown thesis stops making sense. Reaching that level is not a forecast. It is the point where the bearish pattern becomes invalid.

If ADA closes below $0.29, the breakdown becomes the base case, and $0.24 becomes the next support level. For now, Cardano is attempting to counter a bearish pattern with declining coin activity and the possibility of improving capital flows. If CMF breaks up and price respects $0.35 or even $0.33, the survival attempt stays alive.

If not, the Cardano price chart already showed us the destination.

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