Calm Before the Storm Expected as Bitcoin Volatility Wakes Up

Bitcoin’s (BTC) implied volatility (IV) has moved from 33 to 37 on Monday, a notable uptick from multi-year lows and a possible signal that the market’s long stretch of calm is nearing an end.

The Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL), modeled after the VIX in traditional markets, tracks the 30-day implied volatility of bitcoin options and now sits at its highest level in weeks.

Implied volatility represents the market’s forecast for price swings, calculated from option prices. In formal terms, IV measures the one-standard-deviation range of an asset’s expected movement over a year. Tracking at-the-money (ATM) IV offers a normalized view of sentiment, often rising and falling alongside realized volatility.

Last week, BTC’s short-term IV fell to around 26%, one of the lowest readings since options data began being recorded, before rebounding sharply. The last time volatility sat this low was August 2023, when bitcoin hovered near $30,000 shortly before a sharp move higher.

Over the weekend, bitcoin jumped from $116,000 to $122,000, hinting at what can happen when volatility starts to expand. August is traditionally a period of low volumes and muted market activity, but rising IV suggests traders may be positioning for larger moves ahead.

Checkonchain data shows this latest rally was a spot-driven move, which is a healthier market structure than a purely leverage-fueled surge. Open interest has been declining through August, meaning a sudden influx of leverage could amplify price swings if sentiment shifts.