Will the Crypto Market Repeat 10-10? Here’s What the Data Says

The crypto market slid on Wednesday as Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.7% to about $84,100 and Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.5%. Leveraged traders had piled back in, so the dip forced out $403.58 million in long bets within an hour.

The flush revived fears of a 10-10 repeat. However, the data shows leverage has rebuilt while the pressure behind last October’s crash is missing.

What Looks the Same?

This comparison primarily focuses on derivatives because 10-10 was a leverage-driven crash. The rally before 10-10 ran on borrowed money rather than fresh buying, and almost $17 billion in longs were liquidated.

That same build-up is back. Open interest (OI), the value of futures bets still open, grew 4.0% this week to 650,480 BTC, CoinGlass data shows. Before 10-10, it grew 4.1% in five days.

Measured against market size, little has changed. BTC OI equals 3.2% of its market value, versus 3.7% before the crash. ETH sits at 10.4%, close to 11.3%.

Dollar totals hide this. From Oct. 10, 2025, to just before Wednesday’s flush, BTC OI fell 38.6% in dollars but only 12.7% in coins. Most of that gap reflects Bitcoin’s lower price.

In other words, the market carries nearly as much leverage for its size as it did before 10-10.

• The Build-Up: BTC open interest up 4.0% in seven days
• Echo: ETH leverage back near its pre-crash share
• The Catch: More leverage turns small dips into forced selling

What Is Different with the Crypto Market?

The cost of that leverage is far lower. Funding rates show how crowded the long side is. They are small payments that bullish traders make to keep positions open.

Before 10-10, BTC and ETH funding on Binance and Bybit topped 8% annualized on 18 of 32 exchange-days. This week, it cleared 8% only once in 28, and turned negative three times. Deribit shows the same shift, with daily BTC funding at 26.9% before 10-10, versus 7.1% this week.

Meanwhile, a key fuel source has drained. Ethena’s USDe, a dollar token backed by hedged derivatives trades, shrank 66% to $4.99 billion, CoinGecko data shows. That fits a broader deleveraging since October.

As a result, positions are growing without a crowd paying up to hold them. That leaves fewer stretched longs to topple at once.

• The Cooldown: Funding above 8% on 1 of 28 exchange-days
• The Drain: USDe supply down 66% since 10-10
• Real Story: Traders are not paying up to chase price

Why the Crypto Market Flush Stayed Small

That difference showed up in Wednesday’s long flush. In the 24 hours to early Wednesday, $487.02 million in longs were liquidated as BTC fell 1.96%. That equals about $248 million in forced selling per 1% drop.

On 10-10, the same measure hit roughly $2.2 billion per 1%, about nine times higher. By contrast, ordinary 2025 flushes ran between $157 million and $504 million per 1%.

Because forced selling stayed small, the selloff looks like a reset, not a cascade. BTC now trades near $84,100, with support at $82,300 and resistance at $86,000.

Still, a break below $82,300 with funding back above 8% could echo 10-10. A reclaim of $86,000 would confirm the reset.

• The Gauge: $248 million liquidated per 1% drop
• The Floor: Support at $82,300, close to the Sept. 28 low
• Tripwire: Funding above 8% while OI keeps rising

Analyst’s View: The next Fed meeting on Oct. 27 and 28 is the clearest trigger ahead. Another rate hike after September’s increase could lift bond yields and push BTC toward $82,300. If funding stays below 8% through that test, a 10-10-style cascade looks unlikely.

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