JPMorgan Reveals the Critical Price Level for Bitcoin Miners

Bitcoin miners finally got some breathing room last week. It did not last. JPMorgan estimated that Bitcoin’s production cost was around $85,000. The token spent 280 days below this price, meaning miners were not seeing profit. 

BTC briefly climbed up to $87,000 earlier this week, giving relief to miners.

Why $85,000 is Critical for Bitcoin Price

In a September 23 note, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou called Bitcoin’s production cost a “soft floor” for the market.

At the time, Bitcoin traded at $85,795, just above the bank’s estimated mining cost of $84,948.

That mattered because Bitcoin had spent 280 days below that level. The stretch was even longer than the roughly 224-day mining downturn during 2018.

Hashrate also fell around 19% from its October peak, while mining difficulty dropped roughly 15%. Higher-cost miners switched off machines, retired older rigs and searched for cheaper power. 

Some redirected capacity toward AI workloads.

“To the extent it is sustained, this new backdrop should provide relief to bitcoin miners, thus reducing the risk of forced selling by them,” wrote analysts at JPMorgan.

Miners are Selling Less, But They are Still Selling

CryptoQuant data shows the worst selling wave came in February, when miner-to-exchange flows approached 24,000 BTC.

Later spikes were smaller: roughly 12,400 BTC in June, 13,500 BTC in August and about 10,000 BTC during September’s rally above $85,000.

That supports JPMorgan’s argument that forced selling is easing. However, miners are still moving coins to exchanges whenever Bitcoin rallies.

Transfers do not always mean immediate sales, but the pattern shows that higher prices remain an opportunity for miners to raise cash.

The Recovery is Still Fragile

Capriole’s Hash Ribbons show a similar picture.

Bitcoin’s 30-day hashrate average fell from about 1,105 EH/s in late 2025 to 895 EH/s in August. It has since recovered to roughly 947 EH/s, barely above the 60-day average of 943 EH/s.

The gap is less than 0.5%, so the recovery could easily reverse.

With Bitcoin now roughly 2.4% below JPMorgan’s estimated production cost, the market has returned to the same uncomfortable line it only just escaped.

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