Veteran Macro Investor Says AI’s Easy Money Is Over and Bitcoin Is Next

Veteran macro investor Jordi Visser says the easy money in artificial intelligence (AI) is gone. He thinks Bitcoin (BTC) is where the next big gains turn up.

New company filings help explain why. The biggest AI spenders are now burning cash faster than they bring it in.

Big Tech Is Burning Cash to Build AI

Google spent more cash last quarter than it collected. That has never happened since the company listed in 2004.

The measure that matters here is free cash flow. It is simply the money left over after a company pays for the data centers it is building.

All three of the biggest AI spenders saw that cushion shrink.

Meta’s drop is the eye-catching one. A year ago it kept $8.5 billion. This time it kept $784 million.

Its own release shows why. Sales rose 28%. Costs rose 55%. Meta then borrowed $24.91 billion to keep building. It spent $31.08 billion on new capacity in three months.

One fair caveat. Some of those costs were legal bills and layoff payments, not AI. Together they came to $3.58 billion.

Microsoft looks the healthiest of the three. Its filing shows sales up 18% and its Azure cloud business up 43%.

Even so, its spare cash fell 23%. Nobody escaped the squeeze. Only the size of it changed.

Why Jordi Visser Says the AI Trade Is Over

Visser has worked in markets for more than 30 years. He runs AI research at 22V Research and founded Visser-Labs. He used to be chief investment officer at hedge fund Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

“The AI trade’s over. The ability of getting seven, eight times your money in that is over,” Jordi Visser, on a podcast.

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He does not think AI is finished. He thinks the returns are shrinking.

Investors used to hope for seven or eight times their money. He now expects closer to 30% a year. That is still good. It is just no longer a windfall.

The reason is competition. Cheap open-source models keep catching up, so no company stays ahead for long. Wall Street is already split on AI chips as a result.

Goldman Says US Stocks Have No Fuel Left

Big investors have little spare money to put to work. Goldman Sachs told clients that leaves stocks stuck.

Hedge funds have already borrowed heavily to buy shares. Their borrowing sits near the top of the past five years.

“There are limited sources of ‘juice’ for rallies in the immediate term. We still need to get through rubble of the past couple weeks before we can start the conversation for any meaningful re-risking,” Bloomberg reported, citing Goldman Sachs trading desk.

Regular investors are pulling back too. Trading activity this month is more than 3% below the five-year average.

Computer-driven funds are the bigger worry. They hold about $196 billion in US shares. A further slide could force them to sell $15.7 billion inside a week.

The wider mood is nervous. The Federal Reserve held rates steady in a 9 to 3 vote. The Dow then fell 1,153 points, its worst day since April 2025.

Long-term borrowing costs jumped as well. The 30-year Treasury closed at 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.

Why Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Benefit

Visser expects AI programs to start moving money on their own. Blockchains are where that would happen.

He does not think Bitcoin leads the way, though. He expects Ethereum to do better, because investors now prefer networks that earn fees.

The past month backs him up. Ethereum (ETH) trades near $1,921 and is up 23.3% in 30 days. Bitcoin trades near $64,793 and is up 10.9%.

Zoom out and the picture flips. Over a year, Bitcoin is down 45% and Ethereum 49%.ETH also sits 61% below its 2025 peak. Bitcoin’s current price is 49% below its own record.

So this is a one-month shift, not proof of a new cycle. It matches three bullish Ethereum signals spotted this week, and not much more.

What to Watch Over the Next 30 Days

Visser is waiting on one law. The CLARITY Act would finally decide which US regulator watches which crypto asset.

Traders doubt it passes. Polymarket puts the odds near 30%, and seven roadblocks remain in the Senate.

Rates are the other question. Morgan Stanley economist Mike Gapen expects inflation to ease to about 3.3% by December. That would keep the Fed still. Three officials already wanted a rise.

Then there are buybacks. Goldman expects 90% of big US companies to be free to buy their own shares by mid-August.

Visser needs a law and a buyer. Whichever shows up first will tell us more than any earnings call did.

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