Elon Musk Likes, Whales Buy: Can Dogecoin Price Escape Its 19-Month Downtrend?

Dogecoin price trades near $0.073, its lowest area since November 2023, days after a whale bought 200 million DOGE worth $14 million. Elon Musk added fuel by liking a Doge meme for the first time in months.

The Dogecoin price has fallen about 90% from its 2021 record and has spent 19 months in a downtrend. Derivatives traders now position for a reversal, while ETF investors stay on the sidelines.

Whales Accumulate as Musk Breaks His Silence

On July 19, an unidentified whale purchased 200 million DOGE, worth roughly $14 million, through Robinhood. Futures volume jumped 114% to about $740 million, and open interest climbed above $1.1 billion.

Moreover, the weekly TD Sequential indicator has flashed consecutive buy signals. Historically, this setup has appeared near major bottoms across crypto assets, though it does not guarantee a reversal.

Speculation about the buyer intensified after Elon Musk liked a reply featuring the Swole Doge meme. According to Whale Insider, it was his first Doge-related like in months.

However, no wallet data links Musk to the purchase, and the claim remains unverified.

The accumulation stands out because meme coin dominance recently fell to a two-year low, with capital rotating into utility tokens.

Dogecoin Price: Sport ETF Flows Have Flatlined

The institutional side tells a different story. Glassnode data shows US spot Dogecoin ETF inflows peaked near $2.5 million per day in early January, when DOGE traded around $0.15.

Since then, inflows have shrunk and become sporadic. Early July brought an outflow of roughly $871,000, the second largest in the products’ history. In contrast to the whale activity, net flows have sat at zero for about two weeks.

The two funds hold a combined $20 million in assets, barely above their launch levels. Therefore, the current bid comes from whales and leveraged traders rather than regulated funds. Meme coins have also absorbed heavy selling on Binance since Bitcoin’s October peak.

A Full Retrace to November 2023 Levels

The weekly chart shows how deep the reset runs. DOGE has retraced the entire rally from its December 2024 cycle top at $0.485, returning to its November 2023 base.

Price is now testing the $0.056 to $0.07 support zone that launched the previous bull run. Meanwhile, DOGE presses against the descending trendline drawn from the cycle high. A weekly close above it would mark the first trendline break in 19 months.

If buyers reclaim momentum, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $0.1476 becomes the first major target. The golden pocket near $0.2197 follows. Weekly volume keeps contracting, a pattern also visible in SHIB and other meme coins at multi-year lows.

Dogecoin Price Prediction and the $0.07 Line in the Sand

The daily chart confirms stabilization rather than reversal. DOGE has traded between $0.070 and $0.075 since late June, sitting on the top of the weekly support band.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to the neutral zone after deeply oversold readings in June. However, declining volume shows low participation, so any breakout attempt needs a clear volume expansion to be credible.

The resistance ladder starts at $0.082, about 12% above the current price. The $0.089 to $0.09 zone follows, then the psychological $0.10 level, roughly 37% higher.

Reclaiming the $0.1154 swing high, a 58% move, would signal a genuine trend reversal, as noted in a previous DOGE analysis.

On the downside, losing $0.07 could open a slide toward the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $0.0556, about 24% below. Whale accumulation and rising open interest could accelerate either move. Either the trendline finally breaks, or DOGE revisits prices last seen in 2023.

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