Polymarket Odds Plummet Despite Trump Pushing CLARITY Act With Urgent China Warning

President Donald Trump pressed the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, warning that China could seize control of crypto and artificial intelligence (AI) if lawmakers fail to act.

The appeal arrives with the Senate back in session and a narrow window before the recess that begins August 8. Lawmakers have roughly four weeks, widely viewed as the bill’s last realistic chance this year. Yet, success odds on prediction market Polymarket have plummeted by almost 5% today.

Trump Frames the CLARITY Act as a China Race

Trump posted the appeal on Truth Social, linking it to the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina Republican, whom he called a supporter of the bill, died over the weekend.

“China, and many other countries, would like to take complete and total control of this major financial “happening,” as well as A.I., where we are now leading, but where they are fighting hard. Don’t let China win on either subject!!!” Trump articulated.

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The warning frames a wider contest between Washington and Beijing over digital assets and AI. CLARITY would build on the GENIUS Act, the first major US crypto law, signed last July.

The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act 294-134 in July 2025, with dozens of Democrats joining. It later cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9.

The bill now needs 60 votes on the Senate floor, a threshold that has grown more politically expensive to reach.

Why 60 Votes Remain Out of Reach

The bill still faces unresolved fights, and ethics is the biggest. Democrats want guardrails on conflicts of interest tied to Trump’s crypto business.

Trump’s latest financial disclosure showed crypto as his biggest income source. It included more than $1 billion from his family’s ventures, led by over $500 million from World Liberty Financial.

The two committee Democrats who backed the bill said their support would not extend to the floor without a deal. Negotiators also disagree over developer liability protections for non-custodial software.

Graham’s death and Mitch McConnell’s absence since mid-June leave Republicans little margin. That raises the stakes for winning Democratic support.

Analysts Split on the Odds

Industry voices disagree on the outcome. Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith sees a real path, citing building momentum and the emerging bill text.

Still, Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn is more cautious. His firm recently cut its passage odds to 50%, citing a shrinking calendar and competition for floor time.

Prediction market Polymarket mirrors that doubt. As of July 13, its traders put the odds of passage this year near 24%, down from above 70% earlier.

Custodia Escalates Its Fed Fight

Meanwhile, Wyoming crypto bank Custodia asked the Supreme Court to revive its fight with the Federal Reserve. The bank wants justices to review its denied master account.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City rejected that account in January 2023, citing its crypto focus. Founder Caitlin Long petitioned the court after lower courts backed the Fed.

Critics have long called the denial an example of Operation Choke Point 2.0.

The coming weeks will test whether Washington can deliver crypto’s biggest legislative prize before the calendar runs out.

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