U.S. January PPI Rose a Faster Than Expected 0.4%; Annual Pace Jumped to 3.5%

Inflation at the wholesale level came in faster than forecast last month in another disappointment to investors and policymakers hoping for cooling price pressures.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% in January versus economist forecasts for 0.3% and 0.2% in December. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was higher by 3.5% against estimates for 3.2% and 3.3% in December.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.3% in January versus forecasts for 0.3% and 0% in December. Core PPI year-over-year was higher by 3.6% versus estimates for 3.3% and 3.7% in December.

Under pressure once again this morning ahead of new Trump tariff announcements promised for later today, the price of bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade around the $96,000 level.

Normally not too widely followed, today’s PPI figures took on more import coming one day after markets were surprised by Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January that came in far stronger than estimates. Testifying before Congress yesterday following the fast inflation report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted there’s more work to be done on the inflation front.

The PPI number took on even greater significance as Powell said he would be interested in seeing if today’s number confirmed the disappointing CPI data.

After cutting rates 100 basis points in the final months of 2024, Powell and the rest of the Fed has made clear their intent to pause any further monetary ease until there’s a notable slowdown in the economy and/or inflation.

Before the PPI figure was published, markets had priced in only one rate cut for all of 2025, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.