Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50% as Senate Calendar Tightens

Galaxy Research lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%. The latest cut follows a reduction to 60% on June 5, both blamed on a tightening Senate calendar.

The downgrade reflects timing pressure rather than opposition to the bill. Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, said the measure still has no floor date despite reaching the Senate calendar.

A Tightening Senate Calendar

Thorn put the odds at 75% after the May markup, then 60% in early June. Each cut tracked the shrinking number of session days, not the bill’s content. Galaxy flagged the same pressure in an earlier odds cut.

The Senate left for a state work period on June 29 and returns July 13. That leaves about four working weeks before its longer recess from August 10 to September 11.

Must-pass items crowd the same window. The SAVE Act, the housing bill standoff, surveillance reauthorization, and the annual defense bill all compete for floor time.

I’m again reducing my odds of CLARITY act passage in 2026, mostly due to the shortening calendar and growing competition for floor time from other items…,” Alex Thorn wrote in a post.

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What the CLARITY Act Still Needs

The House passed the bill 294-134 in July 2025, well ahead of the Senate. Chairman Tim Scott’s committee then advanced it 15-9 during a bipartisan markup on May 14.

It cleared the committee with only two Democratic votes. On the floor, it needs 60, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross over.

That math depends on settling what the bill needs most. Ethics provisions and developer protections remain unresolved, and June 9 talks on the ethics language collapsed. More than 200 crypto firms urged Senate leaders in June to schedule a vote.

Prediction market traders are even less hopeful. Polymarket put 2026 passage around 44% this week, down from about 74% in May, when ethics worries first dented the odds.

The crypto market structure bill would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC. A slip past July would extend US regulatory uncertainty into the fall.

Thorn still expects a possible July vote, leaving the next few weeks decisive.

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