Oil Slips as Supertankers Resume Hormuz Transit Under Fragile Iran Deal

Oil prices edged lower Tuesday, June 23, as investors tracked a slow resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude dropping down 1.1% at $77.08.

The benchmark hit a near-four-month low during the session. The declines follow a broader Hormuz oil price decline that began when the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17.

Oil Tankers Moving, but Slowly

Three stranded supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, while seven empty Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas tankers have entered the waterway in recent weeks. The International Maritime Organization said an evacuation plan for hundreds of vessels carrying over 11,000 seafarers is now underway.

The reopening is proceeding under close coordination. An Iranian military source said a limited number of vessels are being allowed through daily under oversight from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy.

Oman and Iran also agreed Tuesday to continue talks on future navigation administration in the strait. Although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran would not be permitted to charge tolls under any final agreement.

At the same time, the US Senate voted 50-48 to pass a War Powers Resolution. This limits presidential authority over the Iran conflict, the first such measure to clear both chambers of Congress.

Oil Structural Floor Holding

Despite the bearish price action, analysts see limits to the downside. Energy consultancy Gelber and Associates pointed to historically low US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels, which fell to their lowest point since June 1983, as a factor that should keep a structural floor under the market.

Iraq raised output from its southern oilfields to around 2.1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports fell for a second straight month to a record low, adding an uneven picture to the supply recovery outlook.

The 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil, issued Monday, expires August 21. How quickly physical flows normalize will determine whether the current price floor holds or gives way further.

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