XRP Sentiment Hits 8-Month Low — But On-Chain Data Leans Bullish

XRP (XRP) sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since October 2025, a reading that looks bearish but has often preceded rebounds. The token is down roughly 22% over the past month, yet the data beneath the price tells a more constructive story.

The fear is real, but so is the setup. Holder behavior, leverage positioning, and the chart all lean the other way.

XRP Sentiment Falls Off a Cliff, and That Has History

Sentiment is the starting point, and it is grim. XRP sentiment, measured by a weighted metric that blends social volume with the ratio of positive to negative commentary, sits at its lowest since October 2025.

Crypto Intelligence platform Santiment believes that the cause is more than price. Traders have grown fatigued by the lack of a major catalyst despite years of anticipation around Ripple’s legal clarity and institutional adoption. That fatigue, not just the drop, drained the enthusiasm.

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Here is the counterintuitive part. Some of XRP’s strongest rebounds have come when the crowd lost interest, because once most traders have already sold or given up, the selling pressure that drives price down is largely spent. Whether holders confirm that read comes next.

Hodlers Add Weight to Santiment’s Sentiment Thesis

The mid-to-long-term cohort did the opposite of panic. XRP hodler net position change rose through the price correction, adding steadily even as the price fell 22%.

The trend is what counts. That net position climbed from about 144 million XRP on May 12 to roughly 262 million on June 11, with only a minor dip in late May before holding firm through June. These are wallets that have held XRP for at least 155 days, the standard mid-to-long-term-holder threshold.

This is accumulation into weakness, the mirror image of the sentiment crowd. When committed holders buy while casual traders capitulate or move away from the ecosystem, supply tightens. The next layer shows what that tightening could trigger.

Stacked Short Liquidations Set Up a Squeeze

Leverage positioning adds the fuel. On Binance, cumulative short liquidation leverage over 30 days sits near $106.72 million, well above the $57.95 million stacked on the long side. Shorts are over 84% higher than longs.

That imbalance matters because of where the shorts sit. A large cluster rests near $1.18, with more stacked toward $1.24. If XRP rises into those levels, those shorts get liquidated, and forced buying to close them can cascade price higher in a short squeeze.

This is the bridge from accumulation to a move. Holder buying nudges price up, and if it reaches the short cluster, the squeeze does the rest. The price chart shows whether the structure supports it.

XRP Price Levels to Watch as the Neckline Decides the Trend

XRP trades near $1.13 on the 8-hour chart, where it has carved an inverse head-and-shoulders since early June. XRP price now sits below the pattern’s neckline.

The bullish case is mechanical. The neckline sits near $1.19, and a clean break, helped by holder buying triggering the short cluster near $1.18, projects a roughly 13% move toward $1.34. Buying volume has risen since June 11 while selling volume faded since June 10, which supports the setup. For it to hold, XRP needs to stay above $1.13.

The bearish case is the inverse. If sentiment keeps falling and signals no bottom, holders start selling, or a macro catalyst like rising oil hits, the pattern weakens. A fall below $1.11 exposes $1.08, and a break under $1.04 invalidates the XRP pattern entirely.

The $1.19 neckline separates a squeeze-driven run toward $1.34 from a breakdown that voids the bottoming pattern.

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