Trump Threatens More Iran Strikes, But Oil is Down 25% From Crisis Peak

Trump said the US would “hit Iran hard again today” without naming targets, impacting oil prices. US forces struck sites near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched drones at the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and US Central Command said it disabled the Palau-flagged M/T Settebello tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

WTI crude, the US oil benchmark, climbed 2.1% to $91 a barrel on Wednesday, but it’s still 25% below its April peak, and three specific forces explain the gap.

What’s Capping Oil Prices

Three forces work against the expected price spike. Chinese crude imports have dropped to multiyear lows. Governments have released emergency reserves at scale.

And crude is still moving through the strait through covert means, even as US forces struck Iranian targets near Hormuz again this week.

US government data show stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels last week, a seventh consecutive weekly decline surpassing expectations of a 4-million-barrel draw.

Supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub also fell, though they held above operational minimum thresholds.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan, speaking at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council in London, put it plainly: “At the moment the market is trying to find some equilibrium. It’s more driven by short-term headlines.”

The paper-to-physical oil price gap that BeInCrypto tracked in the crisis’s early weeks, when physical Brent hit $141 while futures traded near $107, has since narrowed considerably.

Trump’s Secret Hormuz Mission

Trump revealed Wednesday that the US has secretly moved more than 200 commercial ships and 100 million barrels of oil through the strait since directing a “secret mission.”

People with knowledge of the operations said at least some ships crossed under cover of darkness with lights switched off.

That covert supply flow, alongside collapsed Chinese demand and emergency reserve releases, explains the market’s relative resilience.

The ceasefire agreed in late April has broken down, and StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada told Bloomberg that risks to crude forecasts remain “tilted to the upside.”

Iran said it will stand firm against any threat. Whether the oil price and market absorb the next round of strikes the same way it has absorbed every previous one is now the only question that matters.

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