Two Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin Price: More Pain Ahead?

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after a sharp rejection at the 200-day moving average, with CryptoQuant warning that the current setup directly mirrors the 2022 bear market structure.

We break down the analyst data, the on-chain signals, and the two possible scenarios that could define the next major move.

Why Bitcoin Closely Mirrors the 2022 Bear Market

CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s May 2026 rally and rejection now look almost identical to the structure seen back in March 2022. The parallel is direct: Bitcoin staged a comparable 43% rally during March 2022 before slamming into the 200-day moving average and resuming its painful downward trend across several months.

This time, Bitcoin surged about 37% from its April lows. The bounce hit firm resistance near $82,400 before quickly reversing toward the $76,000-$77,000 range across recent sessions.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized the resemblance in his May 20 report. He explained that the 200-day moving average has historically marked the boundary between relief rallies and bear market continuation.

“In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption, […] the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact,” Julio Moreno said.

Demand fundamentals add weight to the warning. Speculative demand from perpetual futures slowed sharply near $82,000, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped from net buyers to active net sellers in recent days.

On-chain profit-taking metrics also flashed familiar signals. Unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest since June 2025, closely matching the levels seen right before the March 2022 rejection.

Two Possible Scenarios and Key Levels Ahead

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has fallen back into extremely bearish territory. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium has also remained negative since late April, suggesting that U.S. demand was not strong enough to sustain the rally.

“A positive Coinbase Premium is typical in a sustained bull market, making the current situation a negative price indicator,” Moreno said.

Primary on-chain support sits near $70,000, aligned with the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price. Deeper supports rest at the 200-day MA around $61,400 and the 300-day MA near $54,500.

Analyst The Scalping Pro outlined two potential paths from here. A bounce from the $77,000 support zone could lift Bitcoin toward mid-range resistance before another leg lower develops:

• BTC bounces from this level and pushes higher toward the mid-range before another drop. (Possible, but not his preferred scenario. Bear markets usually don’t make things easy and rarely give trapped traders a clean exit.)
• BTC loses this support and continues lower, forming a new bottom before the next real bull cycle starts. (Most likely to play out.)

A more bearish breakdown below current levels could quickly trigger new cycle lows. Longer term, the 200 to 300 moving average zone could mark a generational bottom if the downtrend fully plays out across coming months.

Sentiment confirms the cautious backdrop. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hovers at 29, firmly inside fear territory, a psychological setup that often amplifies volatility and downside reactions across the broader market.

No two cycles match perfectly, but the data points to clear caution. Investors should watch ETF flows, on-chain demand, and the 200-day average closely while keeping risk management firmly at the center of every decision.

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