Polymarket Sets 67% Odds on 2026 Tech Layoff Rise as Meta Morale Hits Historic Lows

Polymarket traders are pricing a 67% chance that U.S. tech sector layoffs in 2026 will surpass 2025 totals, citing fresh reports that Meta employee morale has plunged to historic lows ahead of May 20 job cuts.

The prediction market posted the morale headline minutes before promoting its “Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?” contract, framing Meta’s workforce troubles as evidence for a wider sector squeeze.

Meta Morale Hits Historic Lows Ahead of Cuts

Meta employees describe internal culture as “dead and depressing,” according to forum discussions on Blind and a WIRED report published Thursday. Workers cite performance reviews tied to AI output and the looming May 20 cut.

The May 20 layoffs will eliminate roughly 8,000 roles, about 10% of Meta’s global workforce, alongside a freeze on 6,000 open positions.

Chief People Officer Janelle Gale framed the decision as a way to run the company more efficiently amid heavier AI infrastructure spending.

“Everyone is unhappy; the only people who are not unhappy are, literally, executives,” an Instagram staffer quoted by WIRED captured a sentiment that workers say now runs across teams.

Meta’s first-quarter revenue hit $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year, but shares dropped roughly 10% after the company raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion.

Polymarket Frames the Wider Layoff Trend

Tensions deepened on May 12 when staff distributed flyers protesting the Model Capability Initiative tool, which logs keystrokes, clicks, and screen activity to train AI agents.

Polymarket’s contract resolves against Bureau of Labor Statistics data for the U.S. “Information” sector by June 2027. Traders currently price “Up” at 67%, citing fresh 2026 cuts at LinkedIn, Cisco, Cloudflare, Coinbase, and Oracle.

The bet closes February 28, 2027, giving sentiment room to shift as the broader pattern of AI privacy disputes, restructuring, and worker pushback continues to widen across the industry.

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