Nearly $10 Billion April Options Expiry Puts Bitcoin and Ethereum Direction in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will see a combined $9.87 billion in options contracts expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, marking April’s largest monthly settlement.

The expiry covers 109,000 BTC contracts with a notional value of $8.55 billion and 563,000 ETH contracts worth $1.32 billion. Both assets traded well above their respective max pain levels heading into settlement, with the Web3 conference in Hong Kong this week adding a bullish backdrop as attendees reflected broad optimism across crypto markets.

BTC and ETH Settle Above Max Pain

Bitcoin’s max pain sat at $72,000, yet spot price hovered near $77,900 at the time of expiry. The put-to-call ratio of 0.93 pointed to a roughly balanced split between bearish and bullish positioning.

Ethereum showed a stronger call bias. ETH traded around $2,315 against a $2,200 max pain, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.72.

The skew toward calls suggests traders had been betting on further upside. Altcoin prices have also been recovering alongside the broader rally.

According to Deribit, call open interest led on both assets, reinforcing the bullish tilt across the derivatives market.

BTC call open interest totaled 52,607 contracts versus 52,844 puts, while ETH calls dominated at 322,373 against 245,862 puts.

Implied Volatility Drops Despite Price Rally

Analysts at Greeks.live noted that Bitcoin’s implied volatility for major maturities continued to fall this month, with most terms dropping 1% to 2% to below 40%. Ethereum’s IV declined even more sharply, sitting around 60%.

“The market continued to rebound this week, with Bitcoin breaking strongly above $78,000… Despite the price rally, Skew metrics have pulled back, indicating that the market is not driven by FOMO,” they wrote.

The declining volatility and retreating skew suggest the current rally reflects steady capital inflows rather than speculative momentum.

Bitcoin’s second-quarter performance has already outpaced the first quarter in both price and sentiment.

What Comes Next for Options Markets

This monthly settlement clears roughly 25% of total open interest on Deribit. Looking ahead, 12% of remaining positions mature at the end of May and another 24% at the end of June, according to Greeks.live. That June expiry will be the next major quarterly event.

Greeks.live noted that Bitcoin performed significantly better in the second quarter than the first, both in price and overall market sentiment.

If macroeconomic pressures ease by mid-year, the current price floor around $78,000 could solidify as confirmed support.

However, the concentration of June-dated contracts suggests that the next quarterly expiry will carry even greater weight for market direction.

Traders will likely watch whether the declining IV trend holds or reverses as those larger maturities approach.

In the meantime, the options data paints a picture of measured optimism rather than euphoria, with steady institutional flows continuing to support prices without triggering excessive leverage in either direction.

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