Equities-Crypto Relationship Is Likely to Weaken in the Long Term, Citi Says

The relationship between stocks and crypto markets is likely to weaken in the future, Wall Street bank Citi (C) said in a research report Monday.

While equities have been and remain the most important macro driver of crypto markets, the “equity-crypto correlation is likely to fall over time as the nascent asset class matures, the investor base grows, technology advances and adoption progresses,” the report said.

Still, the speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets means that risk asset correlations may be inflated, especially during risk-off events, the bank said.

“A more transparent regulatory regime in the U.S. will also lead to more idiosyncratic price action,” analysts led by Alex Saunders wrote.

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility is expected to continue to fall in the long term as institutional adoption grows, the bank said.

Citi noted that crypto was the only asset class whose market cap, as a percentage of U.S. equities, grew during last year.

Bitcoin’s correlation to gold is also worth tracking as it may be an early sign of the “store of value use case,” the report added.