President Trump’s “No Inflation” Claim Collides With a 7-Month High in Expectations

The escalating tensions in the Middle East have intensified inflation concerns among US consumers.

While President Trump characterizes the economy as the strongest in history with no inflation, this position stands at odds with the latest data.

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PRESIDENT TRUMP: The U.S. has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat. We’re the hottest country anywhere, with record-setting investments, the highest stock market ever, and no inflation. It all positioned us to get rid of a cancer that has long simmered. pic.twitter.com/qzlo2BBkcJ

— Department of State (@StateDept) April 2, 2026

What the March Data Shows

The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that US consumer inflation expectations surged in March, jumping 0.7 percentage points to 6.2%. This marked the highest reading since August 2025 and the steepest rise since April 2025.

“Inflation is a major concern for Americans right now,” the post read.

US Inflation Expectations. Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

University of Michigan data reinforced the trend. Its 1-year inflation expectations gauge rose 0.4 percentage points to 3.8%, also the largest monthly increase since April 2025.

Interest rate fears followed close behind. The share of consumers expecting higher rates over the next 12 months climbed 7.5 percentage points to 42.4%.

This suggests price anxiety is filtering through to broader financial expectations, not just grocery bills.

Surging Oil Prices Threaten US Inflation Spike

Oil prices are amplifying the pressure. With US crude trading above $100 per barrel, models from The Kobeissi Letter project that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could reach approximately 3.3% if prices hold at current levels for two more months.

“This would put US inflation at its highest level since May 2024,” the analysts wrote.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also revised its US headline inflation forecast up by 1.2 percentage points to 4.2% for 2026.

“Inflation pressures will persist for longer with G20 inflation now expected to be higher in 2026 than previously projected, reflecting the surge in global energy prices,” the report read.

With oil markets disrupted and consumer expectations now at multi-month highs, the gap between political messaging and lived economic experience appears to be widening.

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