Portugal Cracks Down on Polymarket Following Suspicious Election Betting Activity

Portuguese authorities are preparing to block access to Polymarket after millions of euros were wagered on the outcome of the country’s presidential election before official results were made public.

The move comes as prediction markets continue to gain traction, with sports, politics, and crypto accounting for the majority of activity on the platform.

Polymarket Under Regulatory Fire in Portugal

According to Renascença, the Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has confirmed that the crypto-based prediction platform operates illegally in Portugal, where betting on political events is prohibited under national law.

According to the regulator, Polymarket was formally notified on Friday and given 48 hours to cease its activity in the country. Despite the order, the platform remained accessible as of Monday, prompting the SRIJ to move toward requesting internet service providers to block it.

Attention focused on Polymarket after unusually large volumes of bets were placed on the Portuguese presidential race in the final hours before polls closed.

More than €4 million was reportedly wagered shortly before the results were known, while the total volume on the main presidential market has now exceeded $120 million. During this period, the odds shifted sharply in favor of António José Seguro, well ahead of the release of official projections.

Market data shows that Seguro’s probability of victory surged from around 60% in the morning to over 90% by early evening, before reaching near certainty by the time television networks began broadcasting projections.

The rapid movement has fueled speculation that some traders may have had early access to exit poll data or other non-public information.

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