21Shares Concedes 4-Year Cycle Intact as Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $60,000 again on Wednesday, this time with a steeper decline than the two previous instances in early June.

However, despite the breach, 21Shares still says the four-year cycle has not broken. The crypto asset manager had forecast that institutional demand would end Bitcoin’s halving-driven pattern in 2026.

Its mid-year report now says the opposite.

Why the Four-Year Cycle Still Holds

Bitcoin recorded an intra-day low of $59,102 as of this writing, down nearly 5% over 24 hours. The token has fallen more than 50% from its $126,080 record set in October 2025. It marks the third time the pioneer crypto falls below $60,000 this month.

Bitcoin has peaked 12 to 18 months after each past halving, then fallen hard. The April 2024 halving fed the run to October’s record, and the current slump tracks the same path.

In its latest State of Crypto report, 21Shares said the decline still mirrors past post-halving corrections. The firm had entered the year expecting Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to finally break.

“Heading into 2026, we believed that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle could be finished. Six months in, we have to be honest: price action still looks familiar,” read an excerpt in the report.

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The drawdown still looks mild next to the past two cycles. Glassnode data show Bitcoin fell about 84% after its 2017 peak and 77% after the 2021 peak.

Even while trading below $60,000, Bitcoin holds above the roughly $54,000 cost basis the report flags. That suggests sellers have not fully capitulated.

Institutional Money Cushions the Drop

21Shares built its original call on heavy exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and growing institutional adoption. It expected those forces to soften the boom-and-bust rhythm tied to Bitcoin’s halving.

Ownership has indeed grown more institutional, which the firm says makes capital stickier through downturns. Through late May, it counted about $3 billion in net ETF outflows.

The bleed has since deepened into a record outflow streak in June. Even so, net ETF inflows since the 2024 launch still total roughly $53 billion, SoSoValue data shows.

21Shares still expects that institutional base to support a recovery toward $100,000 by year-end, not a breakout to new highs.

Not Every Analyst Sees a Soft Landing

Other voices see more pain ahead. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects a $40,000 bottom within six months, well below the cost basis 21Shares watches.

Hayes points to a hawkish Federal Reserve, where traders now put December rate-hike odds near 37% on CME FedWatch. He stays long while hedging with options, a stance that captures the current unease.

Thursday’s inflation reading and the Fed’s next moves may decide which view holds. A softer print could ease pressure, while another hot number may invite a deeper test of support.

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